Why mortgage rates are rising, not falling, with oil under $70

Even with oil under $69, mortgage rates are holding near yearly highs because the rate path is being repriced around Fed policy and the 10-year yield. If inflation surprises lower or labor softens, 6.25% becomes more realistic. AI Summary

Oil prices are under $69 while mortgage rates are near yearly highs. For some observers that might seem very odd, but for me it makes sense. During the Iran conflict, the Federal Reserve went from talking about two to three rate cuts to two to three rate hikes . Oil prices falling from over $100 to under $69 is very important, but today I want to focus on the shift in Fed policy and why this chart below hasn’t helped mortgage rates as much as people were hoping for.

I talked about why mortgage rates haven’t fallen much with oil prices in this article and on this episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast. However, since that article, we have had some material changes to the rate outlook.

Fed hawks run the show for now

We have heard from two Federal Reserve hawks this week. Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari said he has penciled in one rate hike for 2026. Meanwhile, in an interview on CNBC on Tuesday, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack was not only hawkish, but said lower oil prices can be a problem for inflation, as lower gas prices will be a plus for the economy. In addition, Hammack acknowledged that the Fed is too restrictive for housing, but said the Fed can’t do anything for housing because of the mortgage rate lockdown, something I discussed on this podcast .

Remember that we went into 2026 thinking we were getting two to three rate cuts. Now the hawks are in charge and they’re pushing for rate hikes, and so far, oil prices falling hasn’t changed their view since the last Fed meeting.

For mortgage rates to fall, the market needs to see that we have more doves against rate hikes versus hawks, and the Fed meeting in July will be a doozy because a lot of Fed hawks made their stance about oil, and this is the first meeting where the doves and hawks can fight it out. For his part, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh made remarks today about how inflation expectations and risk have been falling. However, he is just one person and not part of the Federal Reserve hawk crew that penciled in more rate hikes.

At this point it’s hawks 2-doves 0 because we haven’t heard from certain hawks who might have changed their mind since oil prices have crashed.

For now, treat that 4.46%-4.48% level on the 10-year yield as the base for the hawkish Fed. I believe 65%-75% of where we see the 10-year yield and mortgage rates is driven by Fed policy, and it has shifted significantly from the start of the year to today.

Think of the mortgage rate base at 6.50%-6.75%, and with better-than-expected inflation news, more doves or softer labor data, 6.25% should be a realistic target for the rest of the year.

We have the jobs report tomorrow, which will be a good test of how the bond market will react to positive or negative data.